SPACE WEALTH - Who Gets To Own It
Space wealth in Trillions of Dollars is up for grabs. We look at the history, current trends, and implications.
SPACE
WEALTH IN SPACE - Will everyone benefit equally?
It would be naïve to view space from an explorative perspective only, especially considering that space is the key to untold power, control, and wealth. Will the benefits be distributed equitably? Will we enter an era where access and use are equitable? Will it be State Vs. Commercial? What is the future?
Credits
Space-planet-galaxy-night-nebula Image By Vecstock On Freepik
Space Exploration
During the early days, when we knew very little of space, it was considered a challenging place to explore and gain knowledge. Countries soon vied each other to demonstrate that they can travel to space and back. Over time, it became a space race. A race to be the first country or commercial company to colonize and access resources available in space objects such as the Moon, Mars, or Asteroids.
Wealth, Power & Control
Noble thoughts such as 'benefitting humanity' have been taken over by more powerful motives. While benefitting humanity is still a goal, it's seen as more of a by-product today. Today and in the future, the main goal will be to access, own, and control the vast unlimited resources in space.
According to several news reports, the value of resources just in the Milky Way, itself will be worth several hundreds of trillions of dollars and more. It's a conservative estimate given the fact that the ventures in this industry are at a nascent stage.
Estimating the total value of space-based resources, which run into trillions or even quadrillions of dollars is a complex and speculative task, as it depends on various factors such as technological advancements, economic feasibility, and the development of space industries. It's challenging to provide a precise figure for the total worth of space-based resources.
Several potential resources in space have been identified, including rare metals, minerals, water ice, and even the potential for harnessing solar power in space. The value of these resources depends on humanity's ability to develop and implement technologies for extraction, processing, and utilization cost-effectively.
The rapid development of space technology and depletion of Earth-based resources has made space a source of income and wealth. Space is seen as an unexplored, unlimited source of prosperity and abundance. Wealth that is so vast, that it defies understanding. The combined economic wealth of all countries will pale to nothing when compared to the profit made from exploiting space resources.
You may very well ask, who will benefit from such resources? The question is pertinent and extremely important. The majority of the income and wealth from Space will be distributed and owned by Governments, private Corporations, and high-net-worth individuals, leaving the majority of the human population with minimal change to their source of income or wealth. While economic well-being is one measure, other factors such as Power, and Control will be major influencers that will drive the speed at which this industry will grow and how. Needless to say, countries, alliances, and private industries will be key contenders.
Space Expenditure Trend in 2020 and 2022.
From 2019 onwards, space spending has increased from $424 billion to $546 billion of which government expenditure has contributed around $103 billion. It's worth noting that the commercial space industry is the majority investor contributing 75 to 80% in such ventures. Global government contributions peaked at just $103 billion, led by the USA and other countries with Major space programs.
From 2020 onwards, 'commercial' spending remained the most significant driver of the overall global space economy. It has grown from $447 billion to $546 billion by 2023. Major companies; such as SpaceX, BOEING DEFENCE, COLLINS AEROSPACE, LOCKHEED MARTIN, GENERAL DYNAMICS, BLUE ORIGIN, and NORTHROP GRUMANN are key companies valued at over $600 billion. These companies will dominate the space exploration and exploitation race. In the past, it was a race between countries. Now, Billionaires; Elon Musk, Richard, Jeff Bezos, and others are in a race to make us spacefaring and an interplanetary species.
Commercial/Private companies are spending more than the Government's, exceeding by 75% and more.
Government spending does not show a major increase in spending from 2020 to 2022.
Commercial/Private ventures are driven by profit-making and taking. This trend will continue in the exploitation of space resources.
Space-based laws/treaties are inadequate and mostly inapplicable to commercial/private ventures.
International Space Treaties - Ratifications and Signatories
What needs to be done
New Regulations
New regulations and laws starting right from the top, will have to be implemented from the State/Country and alliances level, followed by regulations/processes at a system level. Followed by regulations and processes governing private commercial entities and lastly at the individual level.
Regulations covering Nations, Alliances, and commercial entities.
Nations such as the USA along with its alliance, China with its alliances, Russia, India, and other countries are in a competitive race to claim parts of the Moon under the guise of conducting scientific experiments. Needless to say, whoever reaches first will lay claim to a large area. This is where the very first level of regulations need to be drafted and enforced. For all we know, SpaceX may be the first commercial entity to colonize Mars. Their knowledge and experience will be used to frame rules, processes, and regulations, because, no one has the capability or the knowledge. What type of governance will be required at an Off-world settlement to conduct the actions, and affairs of these settlements?
Regulations at a systems/process/procedural level
Laws should cover equitable sharing of space resources, spread the wealth amassed from space, and address the economic, societal, and political differences. For example, countries that are leading the space exploration and exploitation efforts should share the riches with non-space-faring countries fairly and systematically. Such a distribution will uphold the 1967 OST treaty stipulation stating that “the exploration and use of outer space should be carried on for the benefit of all peoples irrespective of the degree of their economic or scientific development.”
Regulations at an Individual level
At an individual level, profound changes concerning the advance of robotics and AI will need to be dealt with. Advances in these technologies will accelerate since the initial thrust of space exploration will be done with the help of robotics and artificial intelligence systems. AI-enhanced robots will be sent ahead or with humans to assist in every possible way to make human travel safe and comfortable. Commercial versions of these robots will soon be available in human society. Regulations will be necessary to determine how they will fit in our society. Adapting to these changes will require collaboration between various stakeholders, including governments, businesses, educational institutions, and the public. Continuous dialogue and proactive measures will be essential to ensure that the integration of robots and AI contributes positively to human society.
Urgent need to update the space treaties
Existing space treaties designed half a century ago need a relook and update to include current commercial activities and future needs, to be fair and equitable.
None of the space treaties apply to commercial or private enterprises and have no explicit regulations governing the use of space-based resources. Interestingly, the USA, while acknowledging this, has modified its laws to include participation and impose a level of regulatory control over commercial interests operating out of the USA.
International Space Treaties NOT applicable to commercial/private companies
Space-based treaties, such as the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, primarily govern the activities of nation-states in outer space. These treaties establish a framework for the exploration and use of outer space, emphasizing principles such as the peaceful use of space, the prohibition of weapons of mass destruction in space, and the freedom of exploration and scientific investigation.
However, these treaties do not directly regulate the activities of commercial companies or private entities in space for several reasons:
State Responsibility: Space treaties typically assign responsibility for space activities to the nation-states that are parties to the treaties. While commercial companies operate under the jurisdiction of specific countries, they are distinct legal entities from the governments that sign these treaties. Therefore, the obligations and restrictions outlined in space treaties are primarily directed at nation-states rather than private entities.
Private Enterprise: Commercial companies engage in space activities for various purposes, including telecommunications, satellite launch services, and potentially asteroid mining or space tourism. These activities are often driven by commercial interests rather than national interests or geopolitical considerations, making them subject to different legal frameworks.
National Regulation: While space treaties provide a broad framework for space activities, individual countries are responsible for regulating the activities of commercial companies within their jurisdiction. National laws and regulations govern aspects such as licensing, safety standards, liability, and environmental protection for private space activities.
Evolution of Space Law: The emergence of commercial space activities has prompted discussions about updating and adapting existing space treaties to address the roles and responsibilities of private entities more explicitly. However, reaching a consensus on these issues among the international community can be challenging, given the diverse interests and priorities of different countries.
International Cooperation: Although space treaties primarily focus on the responsibilities of nation-states, international cooperation and coordination are essential for addressing common challenges and ensuring the peaceful and sustainable use of outer space. Commercial companies often collaborate with governments and international organizations on space projects, contributing to broader efforts to advance space exploration and development.
In summary, while space treaties provide a foundational framework for governing outer space activities, they do not directly apply to commercial companies. Instead, national laws and regulations, along with industry standards and best practices, guide the conduct of commercial space activities within the jurisdiction of individual countries and will present conflicts due to opposing national interests.
Outer Space Treaty [OST] - A Brief
The international community has recognized the importance of cooperation in space exploration and has established various treaties and agreements to govern the peaceful use of outer space. Five treaties govern the use of space.
The rules of the 'Outer Space Treaty [OST in short] were signed in 1967 by over 100 countries. OST states that
The exploration and use of outer space shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries and shall be the province of all mankind & shall be free for exploration and use by all States.
Outer space is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, using use or occupation, or by any other means.
States shall not place nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in orbit or on celestial bodies or station them in outer space in any other manner & shall be used exclusively for peaceful purposes.
When OST was drafted and signed, it was implicitly understood that States, meaning Countries were expected to be major players. OST is outdated. While it has provisions to include changes, changes are yet to be made to include the current situation. With the advent of commercial interests, business regulations will take priority.
The wording of OST and the other 4 treaties reflect the generic regulations that are the framework of these agreements. For more details of the 5 Space treaties, you can visit the weblink @ https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties.html.
We will continue to pursue the key issues of lack of applicability of regulations WRT to commercial companies and its ramifications.
The lack of ratification of the Moon Agreement reflects ongoing debates and differing perspectives among nations regarding the governance and utilization of lunar and celestial resources.
Key Countries like the USA, India, China, Russia, Japan, and the European Union are NOT parties to the ratification of the Moon Agreement.
So, What's your take?
Given all the facts, it's abundantly clear that commercial/private ventures will be the primary beneficiary of the vast wealth, followed by the states that they are part of. With the rising distrust, conflicts, and posturing that are the norm today, we may wonder if countries are not keen on pushing for updates to the space treaties. Are they willing to let their commercial ventures get a good head-start and then impose regulations that are driven by the strategy, that leaders get to set rules?
All said and done, being good and doing good, should set the tone. But, Hey, that's outdated. Whoever gets there first gets to set the tone and tenor of the rules and will have a dominating influence, unless, other countries, step up their efforts not to be left behind.
By Microsoft Image Creator. Generated with AI